Supply continuity worksheet

Lead-time variability analyzer

Paste observed lead times to see sample mean, standard deviation, range, safety-time allowance, and planning lead time.

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Enter your inputs

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How to use it

A short, reviewable workflow

  1. 01

    Enter at least three observed lead times separated by commas.

  2. 02

    Select a planning service level.

  3. 03

    Review unusual observations and the normal-distribution assumption before adopting the allowance.

Useful for

Common use cases

  • Supplier lead-time review
  • Planning parameter maintenance
  • Quantifying delivery variability

Important boundary

What this result cannot decide

Inspect outliers and disruption modes instead of relying only on the average or a normal approximation; critical items may require scenario analysis.

Model notes

Assumptions and limitations

Assumptions

  • Observations are independent and representative.
  • A normal approximation is suitable for the selected allowance.
  • All observations use the same day basis.

Limitations

  • Small or skewed samples can make the allowance misleading.
  • Seasonality, demand variability, and disruption scenarios are excluded.
  • The calculation is not a guaranteed service level.

Questions

Frequently asked

What does the service level change?

It changes the z-score multiplied by sample standard deviation to estimate a safety-time allowance.

Why use at least three observations?

Sample variability cannot be meaningfully estimated from one value, and two remain extremely fragile.